Over The Pylon

On Saturday, the Cardinals will play their final home game in the 2014 campaign, and though most are ready to close the book on this football season, there is still significant things for which to play, most notably, a win for the seniors. Though an EMU blasting (and ultimately even an upset of BG next week) won’t completely eradicate the negativity of the first part of this season, it will do wonders to help bolster the argument that this season’s results are an aberration and not the expected norm without NFL talent on the roster.

The rationale for this season’s results are easy to pinpoint. Lost coordinators, lost personnel, a healthy dose of unhealthy injuries, and a steeper than expected learning curve for Coaches Lynch and Kelly have put the Cards at 3-7 and scrambling after a road loss to UMass that ended the Cards’ chances at .500 and a longshot bowl berth.

This Saturday’s contest, slated for a 2pm kickoff at Scheumann Stadium is your final chance to see Jahwan Edwards and a whole host of other seniors suit up for the Cardinals for the final time at home. Vegas puts the Cardinals at 17-point favorites, but the numbers we’re concerned about is the statistics. EMU and BSU by the numbers…

I’ve been doing this a long time, and frankly, I can’t remember a more statistically overmatched team than EMU. The numbers above have little to do with BSU and everything to do with EMU. They’re bad. Real bad. Anything less than a Cardinal dominating win and I’m going to be a bit disappointed. It’s time to blow the stench of this season’s frustrations and missed opportunities out the door. 2pm. Scheumann Stadium. See you there.

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I remember when Ball State was caught smack in the middle of a 20+ game losing streak. I said to my current girlfriend at the time that if the Cardinals could ever find the victory train, the mental breakthrough may rattle off a couple of wins. If memory serves me correctly, once the streak was ended that’s exactly what happened. After a win last Saturday on the road against CMU, and now returning home to face Akron, the same could very well be argued for with little rebuttal from opposing views.

Akron has been in some respects surprising in that they were quite awful for a significant period of time, winning just six games total for the 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons. Last year saw Terry Bowden improve the Zips to 5-7, and some were even pointing to Akron as the darkhorse contrarian pick for the MAC East if you didn’t want to pick BG.

The Zips come in to Saturday with a 4-3 record with their biggest win on the road against 4-3 Pitt. Their three other wins were against FCS Howard, Eastern Michigan, and Miami, all at home. Their losses are Penn State and Ohio on the road and Marshall at home. So in all reality, they have no shameful losses and the majority of folks are picking Akron to win this weekend. Vegas opened the line with the Zips as a 1-point favorite, but that has since shifted to two. Let’s see what the other numbers say…

So Ball State has a 7-9 disadvantage with one draw in the above statistics but given that Akron’s record is 4-3 with a 2-1 MAC mark, I would have expected the difference to be considerably more lopsided. The biggest concern is Akron’s great at passing the ball for chunks of yardage, but once they get in the red zone they struggle to put points on the board. That’s a critical point of emphasis for the defense. They also are stout defensively, more so against the rush than the pass, so it may be a Milas kind of afternoon for the Cards. Kickoff at the Scheu on Saturday is 2pm and we’ll see you there.

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As we indicated earlier this week, Saturday’s contest on the road against Central Michigan is big for so many reasons, not the least of which is breaking the losing streak the Cardinals are mired in, which currently sits at five games. It’s also imperative to win this weekend to have any hope of landing in the neighborhood of .500, and even that will require an upset or two along the way. Suffice to say, this weekend’s contest is big.

It’s game number two in the Jack Milas era, and after last week’s performance, big things are expected from the redshirt freshman. That’s especially true given Jordan Williams’ return to form against Western Michigan in the Cards’ last outing. The loss last weekend on Homecoming? Disappointing. The news circling the drain this week around the Cards? Not so great. But nothing cures those sorts of ills like a win. Let’s see what the numbers say…

Out of 17 statistical categories, CMU leads in 10, which I honestly thought would be higher. To me, the above stats highlight some critical elements. CMU’s defense is stronger against the pass than the run, so it may be a FEASTMODE kind of day for Quake. The biggest issues come on the Cardinal defensive side of the ball. CMU has allowed an abnormally high amount of sacks this year, and getting to the quarterback is something that BSU has struggled to achieve. Those sacks could create a favorable down and distance and force CMU punts, which they have also struggled with this year. With teams fairly evenly matched, this could be a game that comes down to little things like field position, turnovers, and penalties.

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Saturday marks a significant turn of events in Ball State football and a watershed moment in 2014. It’s not only Homecoming, where the crowd at tailgating will almost certainly dwarf the fans in the stands. It’s not only game one of the Milas era, where presumably the turf in front of receivers’ feet will breathe a welcome sigh of relief. Besides those two things, it’s the beginning of the real MAC season, where believe it or not, Ball State can still play havoc with the conference race.

Talk about a potential storybook ending! Jack Milas comes in after a rocky first five games and leads the Cardinals to a Homecoming victory that springboards the Cardinals on to win out, claim the MAC West once Toledo loses a second conference game, and play for a MAC title in Detroit. I can see it now.

But first on that agenda is a Homecoming win over the 2-3 Western Michigan Broncos, losers of two straight games to Toledo and Virginia Tech. Let’s see what the numbers say…

I can’t remember the last time a MAC team not named “Northern Illinois” held such a slanted statistical advantage. It’s 11-6 bad guys, and even if you knock out the stats like rushing defense and passing defense because of the oddities that are created by playing Army. Even with that qualifier, it’s not great news when you look at the chart above. Something else for you to consider is the teams those statistics were accumulated against. For Ball State, their opponents were two FCS schools (Colgate and Indiana State), a B1G opponent playing a C+ game at best (Iowa), a service academy on a three-game losing streak (Army), and a multiple weather stoppage conference opponent (Toledo). For the Broncos, that advantage was gained by playing a common opponent in Toledo, ans also Purdue, Idaho, Murray State (FCS), and Virginia Tech. So make of that what you will. The Vegas line on the game is Ball State -1 and I am absolutely shocked that is the case.

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On Saturday, Ball State attempts to go 8-1 on the 2013 season and 5-0 in the MAC as they travel to perhaps one of the best facilities in the MidAmerican Conference in Akron and Infocision Stadium. But sort of like the empty ghost towns in China just waiting for the housing boom to spread to them, don’t be fooled by the fancy stadium or meeting facilities. All that glitters isn’t gold in Akron, as the Zips and Terry Bowden have limped along to 2-6 overall and 1-3 in the MAC. In the Zips’ favor is only a 4-point loss at Michigan and a touchdown defeat at Northern Illinois. Both teams ranked, both on the road, both should have been epic blowouts. Then there’s the 40-point loss to Ohio. At home.

Akron is one of those teams that is certainly capable of getting blown out at home but they are also capable of beating damn near anyone. Unfortunately for BSU, Akron is the classic MAC team, who will spring a surprise on someone this season. Let’s hope it isn’t Saturday. The numbers…

13-4 in statistics isn’t the biggest advantage BSU has enjoyed this season, but it is a sizable one. Most concerning is the high sack total combined with a stout (relatively speaking) rush defense. BSU is versatile to employ either the rush or the pass to get the W, but one of them has to work. If both struggle, it’s a long day at the office. Akron is slanted heavily towards the pass as opposed to the rush, and it has been the case in recent memory that passing teams sometimes enjoy a bit of success against the Cards. All in all, nothing supremely alarming, but a few areas of concern. The Vegas line opened at 11.5 and has been bet down to 10. That’s a bit surprising, as normally the line movement favors BSU and not the other way. The over/under has been bet down to 56.5 from an opening 58.5, so the sharps think it will be approximately 33-23 Cards. Your thoughts?

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