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Ball State & Miami by the Numbers

Posted on November 21, 2012 by Alan
BSU vs. NIU:
National Stat Rankings & Statistics
NCAA Stat BSU Miami
Scoring Offense 31st (35.4) 95th (23.3)
Rushing Offense 22nd (213.2) 120th (85.1)
Passing Offense  40th (268) 21st (306) 
Total Offense 18th (481.2) 78th (391.1)
Scoring Defense  94th (32.2) 107th (35.3)
Rushing Defense  112th (215.2) 123rd (242.5)
Passing Defense  92nd (257.2) 90th (253.6)
Total Defense  111th (472.4) 114th (477.2)
Sacks 84th (18) 109th (13)
Sacks Allowed 10th (8)  113th (35)
Turnover Margin  76th (-3) 86th (-4)
3rd Down Conv. %  21st (47.5%) 73rd (39.1%)
Opp. 3rd Down Conv. % 80th (42.0%)  109th (46.6%)
Red Zone Conv. %  37th (85%) 105th (73.8%
Opp. Red Zone Conv. % 75th (83.3%)  41st (79.3%)
Punting  71st (40.5) 67th (40.9)
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 44th (47.3) 20th (38.7) 

You would think with a 12-5 advantage in the statistics above, there would be little if any reason for concern. However, two of those stats are directly related. Miami’s 300+ yards per game passing seem tailor made for the 257.2 that the BSU defense gives up per game. On the flip side of the coin, Miami’s passing defense is better by just a smidge and the BSU offense isn’t all that far behind. In other words, bet the over as this isn’t going to be a three yards and a cloud of dust field goal contest. It has the makings of MACtion at its finest. Alabama-LSU this is not.

If the BSU defense can do a serviceable job holding Miami to red zone field goals rather than touchdowns then this one shouldn’t be close. The categories that Miami leads in above are negligible save for that opponent red zone number, and the BSU advantages are significant. This strikes me as one of those games where what will keep Ball State from winning is Ball State. Even with Keith Wenning, Jamill Smith, and Jordan Hansel out on the offensive side of the ball, this seems like the perfect time to uncork a big rushing day from the BSU backfield. I’m sure Miami notices this too, though, and there’s the rub.

On paper, even at less than full strength, BSU has a clear cut advantage, but I would reckon this one will be a bit closer than folks think.

Filed under: ByTheNumbers | Leave a Comment »

BSU-NIU By the Numbers

Posted on October 2, 2012 by Alan
BSU vs. NIU:
National Stat Rankings & Statistics
NCAA Stat BSU NIU
Scoring Offense 36th (35.8) 37th (35.6)
Rushing Offense 28th (213.6) 17th (232.0)
Passing Offense 42nd (263.6) 84th (212.0)
Total Offense 33rd (477.2) 44th (444.0)
Scoring Defense 110th (37.8) 51st (22.4)
Rushing Defense 77th (168.2) 101st (199.4)
Passing Defense 118th (317.6) 20th (180.4)
Total Defense 111th (485.8) 61st (379.8)
Sacks 91st (6.0) 22nd (13.0)
Sacks Allowed 12th (3.0) 34th (6.0)
Turnover Margin 66th (+/- 0) 83rd (-2)
3rd Down Conv. % 51st (43.2%) 10th (54.1%)
Opp. 3rd Down Conv. % 118th (52.6%) 75th (40.2%)
Red Zone Conv. % 34th (88.5%) 84th (77.3%)
Opp. Red Zone Conv. % 118th (100%) 19th (68.8%)
Punting 54th (42.05) 104th (38.63)
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 51st (49.8) 32nd (41.8)

9-8 in favor of the Huskies, with one of BSU’s 8 (scoring offense) being a virtual push. The defensive categories going in NIU’s favor is not a surprise, but two things were:

  1. The margin of those defensive categories. From 20th to dead last in passing defense, 51st to 110th in scoring defense, and over 110 yards in total defense does make me a bit nervous.
  2. Our defense has yet to limit an opponent when they hit the redzone. It hasn’t all been touchdowns, though 16 of the 19 trips have been, so suffice to say creating red zone turnovers and/or forcing field goals would be super.

Filed under: BallStateFootball, ByTheNumbers, MAC | Leave a Comment »

Ball State-CMU By the Numbers

Posted on September 30, 2010 by Alan
BSU vs. CMU:
National Stat Rankings & Statistics
NCAA Stat BSU CMU
Scoring Offense 113th (15.8) 53rd (30.0)
Rushing Offense 67th (148.5) 75th (139.0)
Passing Offense 115th (110.0) 18th (289.8)
Total Offense 117th (258.5) 35th (428.8)
Scoring Defense 78th (26.5) 15th (14.3)
Rushing Defense 89th (175.75) 18th (97.0)
Passing Defense 74th (223.5) 58th (198.3)
Total Defense 91st (399.3) 24th (295.3)
Sacks 111th (3.0) 10th (12.0)
Sacks Allowed 60th (7) 88th (10)
Turnover Margin 43rd (+1) 43rd (+1)
3rd Down Conv. % 94th (33.3%) 65th (40.4%)
Opp. 3rd Down Conv. % 118th (58.0%) 88th (43.1%)
Red Zone Conv. % 81st (78.6%) 106th (70.0%)
Opp. Red Zone Conv. % 101st (90.9%) 4th (57.1%)
Punting 43rd (42.9) 102nd (38.1)
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 78th (58.8) 100th (69.0)

We have gotten away a bit from looking at the upcoming Cardinals’ opponents by their statistical prowess. Largely because it was early, they were FCS schools, and Purdue and Iowa I needed no further rationale to expect a drubbing. Perhaps we should have pushed it off another week after this one. 11-5 advantage for the Chips with 1 push. Perhaps the scariest thing to note from above is that BSU is leading in categories that ultimately cannot dictate a game. Having fewer penalties and punting well mean virtually nothing if you cannot move the ball yourself against their stringent defense or defend their potent offense. Stats of shock to me? CMU holding opponents to just over 57% in the red zone. That’s astounding. Additionally, their defensive numbers like 15th in the nation for points allowed go hand-in-hand with that sort of performance. What stats above worry you?

Filed under: Ball State, ByTheNumbers, MAC | Leave a Comment »

Ball State-Ohio… By the Numbers

Posted on October 28, 2009 by Alan
BSU vs. Ohio:
National Stat Rankings & Statistics
NCAA Stat BSU Ohio
Scoring Offense 102nd (21.0) 77th (25.0)
Rushing Offense 45th (164.25) 98th (115.50)
Passing Offense 109th (153.1) 79th (199.8)
Total Offense 101st (317.4) 104th (315.3)
Scoring Defense 96th (30.0) 42nd (21.0)
Rushing Defense 82nd (157.75) 73rd (148.0)
Passing Defense 82nd (232.8) 37th (195.4)
Total Defense 87th (390.5) 49th (343.4)
Sacks 101st (9.00) 80th (12.00)
Sacks Allowed 111th (23) 57th (14)
Turnover Margin 118th (-12) 5th (+10)
3rd Down Conv. % 89th (34.78%) 98th (33.62%)
Opp. 3rd Down Conv. % 67th (38.39%) 29th (34.15%)
Red Zone Conv. % 64th (81.82%) 112th (68.0%)
Opp. Red Zone Conv. % 58th (81.48%) 62nd (82.76%)
Punting 80th (39.33) 110th (36.75)
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 14th (43.9) 73rd (58.6)

10-7 advantage this week for Ohio, and some troubling things come to light. Most categories are a virtual push, with the exception of Ohio’s sacks allowed and their exceptional turnover margin. Ball State has struggled at times to get pressure on the opposing QB, and with an Ohio squad that prides itself on keeping their QB’s jersey clean, that’s a significant area for BSU to focus on. The turnover margin is ridiculous, as that’s over +1 per game for the Bobcats, and most Cardinals fans will tell you that BSU will need close to perfection with no gifts to spring the upset over Ohio.

Filed under: Ball State, ByTheNumbers, MAC | Leave a Comment »

Ball State-EMU… By the Numbers

Posted on October 21, 2009 by Alan
BSU vs. Eastern Michigan:
National Stat Rankings & Statistics
NCAA Stat BSU EMU
Scoring Offense 106th (19.9) 119th (13.5)
Rushing Offense 92nd (121.57) 87th (125.33)
Passing Offense 100th (174.9) 113th (144.8)
Total Offense 109th (296.4) 118th (270.2)
Scoring Defense 101st (30.4) 107th (34.5)
Rushing Defense 84th (158.43) 118th (243.67)
Passing Defense 101st (253.7) 6th (145.0)
Total Defense 102nd (412.1) 90th (388.7)
Sacks 95th (8.00) 104th (7.00)
Sacks Allowed 112th (21) 68th (13)
Turnover Margin 114th (-9) 75th (-2)
3rd Down Conv. % 93rd (34.95%) 63rd (39.13%)
Opp. 3rd Down Conv. % 74th (39.18%) 99th (44.29%)
Red Zone Conv. % 49th (85%) 117th (62.5%)
Opp. Red Zone Conv. % 41st (77.27%) 82nd (85.19%)
Punting 80th (39.42) 41st (41.85)
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 20th (44.4) 66th (57.3)

10-7 advantage for BSU. The only stats of noticeable difference that concern me are the sacks allowed and turnover margin, as both those things can sort of bite you in the ass while trying to win a game. The greatest discrepancy comes courtesy of the passing defense numbers, but EMU’s stellar numbers has less to do with their actual quality passing defense and more to do with their abysmal run defense. Teams don’t need to throw the ball to beat EMU, as they defend on average 18.5 attempts per game. That’s the lowest attempts per game in the entire country.

Filed under: Ball State, ByTheNumbers, MAC | 1 Comment »

Ball State-BG… By the Numbers

Posted on October 13, 2009 by Alan
BSU vs. Bowling Green:
National Stat Ranking & Statistic
NCAA Stat BSU BG
Scoring Offense 103rd (20.3) 80th (24.7)
Rushing Offense 105th (96.33) 120th (65.67)
Passing Offense 89th (182.2) 4th (335.3)
Total Offense 116th (278.5) 43rd (401)
Scoring Defense 97th (30.3) 102nd (31.0)
Rushing Defense 96th (171.67) 107th (192.17)
Passing Defense 81st (233.3) 38th (190.2)
Total Defense 101st (405.0) 80th (382.3)
Sacks 101st (6.00) 92nd (7.00)
Sacks Allowed 116th (20) 110th (18)
Turnover Margin 109th (-8) 61st (+/- 0)
3rd Down Conv. % 82nd (36.78%) 47th (41.51%)
Opp. 3rd Down Conv. % 75th (40%) 20th (31.17%)
Red Zone Conv. % 59th (83.33%) 104th (73.33%)
Opp. Red Zone Conv. % 47th (78.95%) 26th (73.68%)
Punting 63rd (40.39) 91st (38.70)
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game 21st (42.8) 71st (59.2)

Final tally? 11-6, Bowling Green. Most of the advantages for either team is fairly negligible with one sizable exception… passing offense. a 150 yard defense, and 85 spots is pretty much the definition of sizable. Here’s hoping after Saturday’s contest, those low BSU numbers skyrocket and BG’s high numbers plummet back to Earth.

Filed under: Ball State, ByTheNumbers, MAC | Leave a Comment »

BSU-Toledo… By the Numbers

Posted on September 29, 2009 by Alan
BSU vs. Toledo: Stat Rankings
Where they rank nationally
NCAA Stat BSU UT
Scoring Offense 106 40
Rushing Offense 90 57
Passing Offense 111 9
Total Offense 117 14
Scoring Defense 97 116
Rushing Defense 112 109
Passing Defense 47 109
Total Defense 104 113
Sacks 80 58
Sacks Allowed 92 13
Turnover Margin 108 33
3rd Down Conv. % 95 62
Red Zone Conv. % 87 40
Punting 45 118
Fewest Penalties 9 93

Filed under: Ball State, ByTheNumbers, MAC | Leave a Comment »

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