22.) Florida State Seminoles
What You Need to Know
It’s been an interesting journey for the Seminoles over the last several years. While certainly no slouches in the past 8 seasons, having a winning record each year, it was the unbelievable success the Noles were used to before then that has made this somewhat down decade even harder to swallow. 2001 was the first year in 15 seasons where the Seminoles didn’t finish the year in the Top 5, and they haven’t come close since then.
The offseason was tumultuous as well, as it saw FSU and its administrators wrangle with the NCAA over wins they may or may not need to vacate, which will impact head coach Bobby Bowden’s standings as the potential winningest coach of all time. Suffice to say that Bowden, the players, and the fans are looking forward to this football season if for no other reason to shift focus back to the gridiron instead of what goes on off it.
This season, the Noles are hoping to improve on last season’s 9-4 campaign, and there is certainly reason to believe they will be the front-runner for the ACC’s Atlantic Division crown and berth in the ACC title game. Tempering that sort of belief and what gives non-believers pause are the losses felt on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the Noles haven’t lost a lot in terms of quantity, but certainly lost more than their fair share in terms of quality. Losing only 3 starters is usually a recipe for success, especially when you return your starting QB and all of your offensive line, however, FSU loses their main threats and weapons. RB Antoine Smith and WRs Greg Carr and Preston Parker are taking with them their combined 1900 yards of offense and 22 touchdowns. Returning is their junior signal caller Christian Ponder, who struggled in his first year as a starter, but still managed a 2000-yard season. Ponder’s year of experience will serve him well, and he is responsible now for using a slew of new skill position players as best he can.
Defensively, the Noles are chock full of holes. Returning only 5 starters, and losing 4 of their top 6 tacklers means there are new faces left and right. Benefiting FSU is the fact that they, like other programs, are long on talent throughout their roster. It is simply a matter of whether that talent can perform despite their inexperience. The Seminoles find themselves replacing 2 of 4 defensive linemen, 2 of 3 linebackers, and 2 of 4 secondary players. The returning senior LB Dekoda Watson will be the primary impact player of the unit. In a very un-FSU-like 2008, the defense gave up an average of 133 yards per game on the ground. That number must get better for this defense to give FSU a chance in ball games.
Florida State plays in the ACC, a conference with no stand outs, and known for parity and upsets week in and week out. Absent from their conference schedule is consensus top 10 team Virginia Tech, and that will bode well for the Noles improving on their 5-3 conference record from last season.
Who You Need to Know & Their 08 Stats
QB Christian Ponder 177-318, 2006 yds, 14 TDs, 13 INTs
RB Jermaine Thomas 69 att, 482 yds, 3 TDs
LB Dekoda Watson 46 tkls, 8 TFL, 1 INT
Game to Watch
Out of conference, the Noles’ schedule is certainly admirable. Aside from an early season contest against Jacksonville State, they battle in-state rivals South Florida (9/26) and @ Florida (11/28) with the potential of ruining a perfect season a shot at a national title for the Gators. Additionally, the Noles travel for a game at BYU on September 19. In conference, the Noles’ toughest competition for the ACC Atlantic will come @ Clemson (11/7) and @ Boston College (10/3).
They’ll Do Well If…
… the defense is even a shell of former defenses that FSU teams relied on for defensive intensity to win games. While it is a given that the offense will be improved, it is the defensive performance that will dictate just how “improved” the offense needs to be.
Season Outlook
FSU may have to wait another year to see if they return to the Top 5, as it is a longshot for the 2009 season, but Noles fans should feel confident that they will be convincingly improved from recent years in skill and performance if not record. Even though the only sure-fire loss on the schedule for the Seminoles is their season finale at Florida, they have out of conference coin flip games against South Florida and @ BYU, and then the ACC season begins, and the parity of the ACC makes for several losses. Our prediction of 9-3 for the Seminoles would be a great season, and a virtual guarantee of an ACC title game berth.
